A new report by GTM Research, the analytical arm of GreenTech Media, shows that the United States is on track to head the global solar photovoltaic (PV) marketplace, with sales set to double by 2011.
According to the report, The United States PV Market Through 2013: Project Economics, Policy, Demand and Strategy, the U.S. will likely put Germany in second place over the next four years when it comes to solar sales and installation.
Germany is currently the world’s largest solar PV market, according to German solar industry association BSW, but that will change – and rapidly – as U.S. demand for solar rises by about 50 percent, from 320 megawatts in 2008 to about 1,212 megawatts (1.2 gigawatts) in 2012. The potential to increase to a full 2 gigawatts also can’t be ignored, if federal, state and regional incentives remain firm or expand.
The growth will largely occur in residential and utility-scale sectors, the first via the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or ARRA, the second via both ARRA and an improving economy that sees investors willing to support utility-scale solar as a reliable, long-term investment. This latter is made possible by state renewable portfolio standards, or RPSs, which increasingly mandate higher and higher limits of renewable energy in a utility’s generation mix, and offer economic and operational benefits for participating utilities.
According to the report, California’s solar PV leadership will soon be challenged by rising solar PV demand from states like Arizona, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada and Massachusetts, which will collectively support 376 megawatts of solar PV electricity by the target date, 2012.
New Jersey, for example, currently offers renewable energy credits, or RECs, as a funding source for residential and small business solar PV installation, paying up to $1 per watt. It also provides “homegrown” solar companies with .25 cents per watt, in the form of a rebate, for solar panels and .15 cents for inverters and solar PV racking systems.
Arizona offers tax credits and lowered property tax assessments, as well as incentive programs ($3 per watt) through regional utilities like Arizona Public Service. In New Mexico, where solar incentives can reduce solar PV installation payback times to as little as seven years via RECs, PNM’s fixed rate structure is reportedly grappling with renewable energy limits (and losing).
In New York State, a whole array of incentives support solar PV installation. Unfortunately, funding for 2010 is lagging, and if it fails, it leaves both installers and would-be solar fans in limbo. Get it together, NY.
Nevada is big on solar, too; that is, utility-scale solar, ranging from the Army National Guard’s installation of 3.4 megawatts to the Copper Mountain expansion (from 10 megawatts to a mind-blowing 58 megawatts). Residential solar, not so much. And in Massachusetts, where response to the state’s solar energy program has driven program funding into the ground, the chief agent of solar change appears to be Governor Deval Patrick.
Most of the demand will come from utilities, or utility-scale installations, says the GTM report, which will reach 466 megawatts by the same target date.
If GTM’s assessment is accurate, this booming solar PV market could also add about 50,000 “green” jobs, which will further support renewed economic stability. This is doubly good news to an economy currently relying on a “jobless recovery” (isn’t that an oxymoron, if consumers drive two-thirds of the economy?).
All in all, it’s a cautiously worded but favorable bit of news for Americans tired of doom and gloom. And the idea of outrunning the tech-savvy Germans at their own solar game is equally as cheering, at least in the solar industry.